Metagross-EV: Expected Win Rates for Pokémon TCG

1 Choose decks

Pick the decks you think you'll run into. Each one gets ranked and also counts as an opponent, and you can split those two jobs up in the next step.

2 Set expected meta share

Everything starts at its current usage in the data, and you can type over any of it. Each deck here is doing two jobs. Rank controls whether it shows up in the results below. Switch field off and the other decks stop having to play against it, which is how you try a deck nobody plays yet. You can't register the Other bucket, so it keeps its place in the field with rank switched off.

Playing something the data has never seen? Enter your own matchup numbers and see how your brew holds up into this field.

Your own deck

For a brew with no tournament record yet. Give it a win rate into each deck in the field, and be honest about how much testing sits behind those numbers. They regress toward 50% the same way a real record would.

Deck name How much testing? Meta share

Roles

Copy win rates from

Drops that deck's raw numbers into every win rate below, so you can start from a deck that plays like yours and adjust from there.

3 Expected win rates

Each deck's win rate into the field you just described. If the gap between two decks is smaller than their intervals, the games don't support putting one above the other. Click any deck for its matchup-by-matchup breakdown.

Settings

How a tie counts Regression to 50% Include mirror matches in the field You do play mirrors, so by default they count as a 50% slice of the meta. Show the matchup matrix The full head-to-head grid for whatever you've selected.

Matchup matrix

Each row deck's win rate into each column deck, after regression. Hover a cell to see the raw record behind it.